Results Of Simulated Israeli Strike On Iran! and the left out role of Pakistan

By Umer Sultan

The National Public Radio (NPR news) ran a program on the Talk of the Nation about the Results of the Simulated Israeli Strike on Iran by the Saban Center for Middle East Policy (SCMEP), studied by Kenneth Pollack.

The official details of the simulation can be read here. The NPR program can be listen/ read here.

In brief there were 3 players of the simulation–America, Israel & Iran. The SCMEP had the players reflecting the currect policies of the US and Israeli governments. The simulation time was 8 days, in which Israel attacked the Nuclear facility of Iran without asking or notifying the United States in advance. After the attacks, the US was told by the Israel that this favor has been done by Israel and that US should help Israel in regards to this. The United States was first angry and then tried to keep Israel aside from the scene and tried to control the situation from getting any worse.

Iran, on the other hand, responded by attacking Israel, while Israel started getting hit my rockets from Lebanon and Gaza. Israel had to send a major land military offensive in order to invade Lebanon and Gaza to stop the rockets. By the end of the simulation (8th day) Iran was mining the Straight of Hormuz, Israel was in the middle of the major land offensive, Saudi Arabia got hit by Iran as well (they didn’t believe that Saudi Arabia had nothing to do with this), Syria was supporting Iran but didn’t know what to do of this sudden nuclear exchange…

Pakistan left out:

The simulation, however, left a major player in this conflict. It is understandable that the simulation was only for 8 days, but it only focused on the gulf states.

The Pak-Iran Relationship:

Pakistan and Iran are closer than the western nations think. The people of Pakistan are in fact more supportive of Iran than the people know in the West. We should remember that during the 2008 US Presidential elections, when John McCain and Barack Obama were campaigning for the race, and John McCain said that “bomb bomb bomb Iran” the people of Pakistan came out on the streets in almost every major city saying that an attack on Iran will be considered an attack on Pakistan. In some rallies it was also said that “we will cross the Pak-Iran border and fight with Iranians.”

It is important to know that after the Independence of Pakistan in 1947, Iran was the first country to recognize Pakistan and:

Following the Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979, Pakistan was the first country, which recognized Revolutionary Iranian Government. [Pakistan Daily]

However, at two major points Iran and Pakistan had setbacks in their relationship. When Pakistan supported the newly Taliban government of Afghanistan (after the withdrawal of Soviet troops) while Iran opposed it; and more importantly when Iran did not support Pakistan in the United Nations regarding the Human Rights Violation in the Indian occupied territory of Jammu and Kashmir in 1996.

Possible Pakistani Reaction:

The attack by Israel in the neighborhood of Pakistan will create massive public uprising. Pakistan does not recognize Israel as a state and the attack on Iran will torch the already rising anti-americanism in Pakistan.

The Pakistani military will feel a direct threat from Israel and the people of Pakistan will come to the streets in protest for sure.

Worst case senario: the “democratic” government of Pakistan will not be able to handle the public uprising. Pakistan will have 2 choices- [1] A revolution in Pakistan by someone who is very vocal and extreme in views, behind whom the people and organizations could rally around. They will over throw the government. [2] That is very unlikely to happen because before the  over throw of the civil government the Military of Pakistan will stage a coup. Martial Law will be declared because Pakistan (the ally of America), its Generals will absolutely not officially support Iran under American pressure. We might see clashes between the Pakistani military dictatorship and the public. And this is where the militant organizations will do best. [added on April 01, 2010]

The militant and jihadi organizations will be able to attract membership and it is not going to be unexpected if Pakistanis would actually cross the Pakistani borders to join the Iranian forces.

The Shia population of Pakistan is in very much close ties with Iran, and certainly the Shia organizations of Pakistan will participate in Iran’s defense after the attacks by Israel.

However, this response of Pakistani Shias would not be much different from Pakistani Sunnis, because as the world saw during the public protests in Pakistan in the response of John McCain’s rhetoric of bomb bomb bomb Iran, the majority of the protests were arranged by “Sunni” organizations.

The Ultimate Catastrophe:

Pakistan will have a youth uprising at hand. The sentiments of which can be seen among the youth at present and it will not be by “conservatives” because this is the sentiment that will be (and is) shared beyond the political spectrum in Pakistan.

The United States need to be firm and blunt about it. Why should US endanger its troops because of the policies of the State of Israel.

It is good to know that the Saban Center did the simulation on this issue and showed an abstract picture of what could happen. We know that in reality it will get much worst.

May Allah have mercy on this earth and keep the war mongers on everyside from getting into the position to bring this world as we know it to the ultimate catastrope, to the World War 3.


Filed under America, Muslim World, Palestine, Umer Sultan

8 responses to “Results Of Simulated Israeli Strike On Iran! and the left out role of Pakistan

  1. asalaam o alykum,
    this is a very well wriiten piece mashaAllah.

    ameen to your dua.
    the world is becomming crasy everyday.
    May Allah subhanahu wa ta’ala protect us all ameen.

  2. Walaikum Assalam Sister Maryam,

    I am glad you liked it. I have added a worst scenario that I forget and that which will certainly happen. Plz do check that out as well.

    “the world is becomming crasy everyday.”

    So true.

  3. Jia Ansari

    Very well written Umer. This will create horrifying backlash, and the aftermath will be a disaster. May U.S act with maturity and does not favor Israel and may not take any action that endanger it’s own existence..

    • Thank you for reading the article.
      I don’t know about “endanger it’s own existence” because US is geographically too far for any country.
      However this will certainly have major and direct affect on the US troops stationed across the world and the same thing will happen to Western troops including NATO.

      In short a very major implication. That is to say aaaam
      World War 3!

  4. D.I.D.

    Easy, friend… you sound almost like you are a bangin’ the war drums.

    Not surprised that Pakistan was left out of the military strategists’ simulation, mind you. For some reason or another, Pakistan is always left out in NATO’s calculations, and it makes zero sense.

    It also makes no sense why the USA condomes this behavior by one of its allies at all. Israel is America’s #1 foreign relations nightmare when it comes to the Middle East. Becasue America is so important to Israel (and in the grand scheme of things, Israel is not critically important to America) one would hope that the USA would take advantage of this and restrain it’s ally.

    Think about it, regardless of how angry Israeli politicians would be about the USA demanding an end to the illegal settlement of Palestine, if faced with possible abandonment by their only allies, Israel would have no choice but to get in line. This would at least lessen hostilities between Israel, the USA, and the Middle East, for sure.

    • The Israel has attacked the Syrian and Iraq previously without having the Washington on board. And they have the capability to attack Iran as well.
      Its just when iran will be attacked, all hell will break loose. There is a very strong anti-american sentiments growing, like very strong. You have seen the Pakistani blogs, you know that.

      There will be chain of events that will take place.
      We know that considerable minority of Pakistanis will cross the border and fight with Iran. We also know that India and Israel are an ally, and in many previous conflict, Pakistan faces a direct threat from its eastern border when Pakistan engages in any other conflict.

      The thing is we know that all hell break will break loose but we don’t know and can’t think of how it will.

      You are right Pakistan is always left out of all these kinds of calculations, and its funny how Pakistan faces the direct impact of all the policies directed in that region.

      The war mongers need to be leashed tightly in all sides.

  5. Alex

    You think anti-american sentiment in Pakistan is significant….who cares Pakistan is a corrupt shithole joke of a country. What you lot should be concerned with is the dramatic rise in anti-muslim sentiment in the West and the rest of the world. They have people considering and calling for the nuking of Mecca and Medina. The expulsion of muslims from Western countries is on the table, like a grand redux of the partition of India.

    • the rising Islamophobia is indeed a great concern. But what happens in Pakistan is also important because when we have US politicians trying to have US into 3rd war with Iran, there are grave consequences that the media is not reporting and the policy makers are not letting the Americans know!

      The ideas like nuking of Holy cities and mass deportation and even sending Muslims into containment camps are also rising, you are right!!!

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